About the Project
Rhino populations are increasingly concentrated in privately managed landscapes, a form of Other Effective Area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs), where landholders’ decisions and incentives strongly influence conservation outcomes. In South Africa, over half the white rhino population occurs on private land, a share likely to grow as state-protected areas struggle with poaching. The species’ future therefore hinges on the economic choices of private landowners and communities. While ecological models estimate the biological carrying capacity, financial factors—such as security costs and revenue streams from ecotourism or live sales—define their economic carrying capacity. Trade restrictions on rhino horn can further constrain incentives by removing an important source of income, potentially reducing the land available for rhino conservation. Understanding these dynamics is essential for policies that sustain both biodiversity and livelihoods.
Research Questions:
1. How does the economic carrying capacity of rhino populations differ from their ecological carrying capacity?
2. To what extent would continued restrictions on horn trade influence private and community investment in rhino conservation?
3. How do market structures, management costs, and revenue streams interact to shape conservation space in OECMs?
Methodology: The project will develop a counterfactual, bioeconomic modelling framework to explore scenarios of rhino recovery under different trade and management regimes. This will involve multi-market models integrating rhino population dynamics and economic drivers, along with the exploration of equilibrium displacement models to assess policy counterfactuals. Data on costs, revenues, and population parameters from southern African states will inform simulations.
The student will gain interdisciplinary skills in ecological and socio-economic modelling, conservation policy analysis, and bioeconomic simulation. The student will benefit from the University of Kent’s Researcher Development Programme, gaining skills in research design, data analysis, communication, and career development. While within DICE, they will receive tailored training in interdisciplinary conservation research.
References
Provide academic references in support of your application; these will be requested if you are successful through the shortlisting process.